Health researchers in New Zealand examining the long-running Year 10s smoking study say the e-cigarette companies are wrong: vaping is not displacing smoking among young people. Researchers from the University of Auckland, Australia’s Cancer Council New South Wales and the University of Sydney’s Daffodil Center, looked at vaping and smoking trends among New Zealand adolescents.


Published last Friday (March 21), the study analyzed 25 years of data, from 1999 to 2023, examining the potential impact of vaping on smoking trends among nearly 700,000 students aged 14 to 15 years old.


Researchers expected to see a decline in smoking after vapes were introduced, but University of Auckland research fellow Dr. Lucy Hardie said that while youth smoking rates in New Zealand were declining steeply before vapes came on the scene in 2010, that progress has slowed.


 “What we found instead was that actually the rates of decline slowed, rather than speed up,” Hardie said. “For us, this means that potentially, young people are experimenting more, rather than less, with the advent of vaping.


 “That might be down to things like vaping being more socially acceptable, in this younger age group, and so it may not be such a leap to then start experimenting with cigarettes as well.”


In 2023, approximately 12.6 percent of 14 to 15-year-old students in New Zealand had ever smoked, nearly double the 6.6 percent predicted in the pre-vaping era. Similarly, in 2023, around 3 percent of Year 10 students were smoking regularly, but this rate would have been just 1.8 percent had it followed its pre-vaping trend.


The research contradicts an earlier and oft-quoted study from 2020 that suggested vaping might be displacing smoking among New Zealand youth. The new study uses the same data but drew on a much wider time period, Hardie said.


The researchers found that vaping may have actually slowed New Zealand’s progress in preventing adolescent smoking. Meanwhile, the new research also shows the prevalence of daily vaping in New Zealand increased from 1.1 percent in 2015 to 10 percent in 2023.